Automobile burden reduction stimulates aluminum demand in the automotive industry
Goldman Sachs released a report on the 11th, optimistic about the automotive aluminum market prospects, indicating that more and more car body using aluminum materials, will become the "game rules changer" in the field of downstream aluminum applications. In the current decade, the demand for automotive aluminum will grow faster than any other end market.
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs upgraded the US Kental Aluminium (CSTM) stock rating from “Buy” to “Confidence Buy”. The stock price is expected to increase significantly from US$27 to US$35, and the share price of Alcoa (AA) is expected to be $12 is raised to $15. Affected by this, Kennedy Aluminum's share price rose 1.94% on the 11th, and Alcoa rose 2.35%. In the past three months, Kennedy Aluminum's share price has risen 36%, and Alcoa has risen 27%.
Environmental demand has forced the car to "burden"
At present, the US and European markets are pursuing policies that force automakers to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Among them, the US CAFE (Company Average Fuel Economy) rule mandates that the average fuel consumption of light vehicles sold by vehicle companies should not exceed the specified annual limit, and the average fuel consumption is required to increase by 35.5 kilometers per gallon in 2016, and increase by 2025. The value is 54.5 kilometers per gallon. Although the EU has no sexual regulations on the fuel economy of automobiles, it also encourages consumers to purchase fuel-efficient cars by imposing a heavier fuel tax.
Normally, the body weight consumes about 70% of the fuel, so the primary problem of reducing the fuel consumption of the car is to make the car lighter. Due to its light weight, wear resistance, corrosion resistance, good elasticity, excellent impact resistance, good processing and high recyclability, aluminum, which is known as “light metal”, has become the material of choice for lightweighting automobiles. Business Opportunities: Aluminum Alloy Plates] Body cars are favored for their energy saving, low consumption, safety and comfort, and relative load capacity.
Analysts said that considering the future car manufacturers will be committed to meet the CAFE standards, and reduce the user's concerns about fuel consumption costs, improve the aluminization rate of the body, that is, increase the aluminum plate [color business opportunities: aluminum plate network] in the automotive application is expected to become the future The development direction of automotive materials.
Goldman Sachs reports that the US CAFE standard requires a 50% reduction in vehicle carbon emissions by 2025, which will drive automotive OEMs to look for alternative materials to produce light-duty vehicles, thereby driving significant growth in the automotive aluminum sheet market. Goldman Sachs expects that the annual compound growth rate of the North American automotive aluminum sheet market will exceed 50% between 2013 and 2016.
Demand for automotive aluminum is expected to rise significantly
At present, the use of aluminum metal in automobiles is increasing year by year, and more and more cars are beginning to use aluminum bodies partially or entirely.
At the recent Detroit auto show, Ford released the 2015 F-150 model, 97% of the body is made of aluminum, which is 320 kg less than the previous steel body model, and fuel efficiency is increased by 30%. The F-150 has always been a classic pickup truck from Ford, and has been ranked first in the top ten best-selling cars in the United States for many years. Last year, the model sold more than 763,000 vehicles, accounting for 40% of the pickup market.
The introduction of the aluminum body F-150 is the first time that aluminum has been used to make most of the body of a full-size pickup. Goldman Sachs believes that Ford's new F-150 body is made of aluminum, which is only the tip of the iceberg in the industry. It is expected that the original original car manufacturers will turn to some or all of the aluminum body in the next few years.
At present, the hot Tesla Model S model on the market adopts an all-aluminum body, and most of its front and rear suspensions are also made of aluminum, thereby reducing its own weight and solving battery life problems. In addition, Land Rover Range Rover, Volkswagen Audi A8, Mercedes-Benz CLA, GM Chevrolet Corvette sports car and other body parts are also partially or entirely aluminum.
Alcoa expects the number of aluminum panels used by automakers in North America to triple by 2015 and ninefold by 2025. Alcoa CEO said that 2014 will be the beginning of a significant growth in aluminum demand in the automotive industry.
Industry research institutes report that the global aluminum market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% in 2014-2018, and an important factor supporting growth is the significant growth in demand for aluminum applications in the automotive industry. In 2012, the US aluminum sheet market has a capacity of less than 90,000 tons. It is expected to reach 450,000 tons by 2014, 1.44 million tons by 2020 and 2.88 million tons by 2025.
